黄欢,刘其声,姬亚东
HUANG Huan,LIU Qisheng,JI Yadong

• 1:煤炭科学研究总院
• 2:中煤科工集团西安研究院有限公司
• 3:陕西省煤矿水害防治技术重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

针对矿井涌水量时间序列的分形与灰色特征,采用重标极差分析法(R/S分析法)确定涌水量时间序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期,在一个周期内建立等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)预测模型。充分利用最新信息,提高模型预测精度。运用基于R/S分析法的GM(1,1)模型对陕北某矿矿井涌水量进行分析预测,结果表明,模型拟合程度好,预测精度高,能够为矿井安全生产提供决策依据。
Aiming at the fractal and gray characteristics of time sequence of mine water inflow, R/S analysis was used to determine Hurst index and average cycle period of time sequence of mine water inflow, the equal-dimension gray filling dynamic prediction model GM(1,1) was set up with a cycle. The up-to-date information was fully used to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis was applied to predict the inflow in a mine in Northern Shaanxi Province. The result showed that the model had good fitting degree and high prediction accuracy, and it could provide decision basis for safe production in mines.

关键词(KeyWords)： 矿井涌水量;R/S分析法;Hurst指数;平均循环周期;等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型
mine water inflow;R/S method;Hurst index;mean period;equal-dimension filling dynamic GM(1;1) model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK04B04);; 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41402220);; 陕西省自然科学基金项目(2011JQ5015)~~

作者(Author): 黄欢,刘其声,姬亚东
HUANG Huan,LIU Qisheng,JI Yadong

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